We are sharing a specialised consulting opportunity for experienced elections forecasters, campaign strategists, polling and statistical-methodology experts, and political-risk analysts to contribute to advanced AI evaluation and research projects focused on elections, polling, forecasting, and political-risk analysis.
Selected professionals will author point-in-time political reports using fixed evidence cutoffs, document contemporaneous probabilistic judgments, assess polling and market-implied expectations, and review AI-generated political analysis against professional research standards. The work requires demonstrated experience making live analytical judgments rather than primarily retrospective political commentary.
Key Responsibilities
Election Forecasting & Political Analysis
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Author structured political reports using a stated evidence cutoff
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Analyse election developments and changing electoral conditions
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Document contemporaneous judgments about race dynamics
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Assess information available at the time without incorporating later outcomes
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Produce clear analytical reasoning suitable for expert evaluation
Polling & Probabilistic Assessment
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Interpret polling data and relevant statistical indicators
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Evaluate directional changes in electoral expectations
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Analyse win probabilities and other probabilistic assessments where required
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Consider market-implied political odds as part of broader analytical context
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Explain assumptions and uncertainty behind forecasting judgments
Political Risk & Event Analysis
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Analyse political events with potential electoral or market implications
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Explain causal mechanisms connecting events with expected outcomes
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Distinguish material developments from weak or incidental signals
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Assess the likely direction and significance of political effects
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Document relevant uncertainties and alternative interpretations
Point-in-Time Research & Methodology
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Reason strictly from information available at the specified cutoff
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Separate observable information from assumptions and forward-looking judgement
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Avoid hindsight and information released after the relevant date
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Apply disciplined polling, forecasting, and statistical methodology
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Produce structured research that can be evaluated consistently across assignments
AI Evaluation & Research Quality
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Review model-generated election and political-risk analyses
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Compare outputs against expert-authored reference assessments
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Identify unsupported conclusions, methodological weaknesses, or misuse of polling data
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Evaluate whether probabilistic reasoning is appropriately calibrated
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Provide structured feedback supporting consistent political-analysis evaluation
Ideal Profile
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Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling expert, statistical-methodology specialist, political-risk analyst, or comparable professional
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Demonstrated experience making live judgments about elections, polling, probabilities, or political odds
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Strong polling literacy and understanding of forecasting methodology
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Strong causal reasoning and event-analysis skills
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Typically 8+ years of directly relevant experience, or substantial equivalent professional experience
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Experience covering presidential, Senate, gubernatorial, or other significant electoral contests is highly relevant
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Background in election forecasting, polling organisations, campaign analytics, decision desks, or political-risk research is valuable
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Experience analysing political developments for financial institutions, investment organisations, or specialist research teams is also relevant
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Strong written communication and ability to document analytical reasoning precisely
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Ability to distinguish contemporaneous signals from retrospective interpretation
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Experience with probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication is strongly preferred
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Pure communications or journalism backgrounds without demonstrated forecasting or polling experience are outside the intended scope
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Academic experience should include applied electoral, polling, or probabilistic analysis rather than exclusively theoretical work
Engagement Details
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Independent contractor engagement
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Fully remote
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Compensation: $150–$250/hour
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Work will involve election forecasting, polling analysis, political-risk assessment, point-in-time research, and AI-output evaluation
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Assignments may involve polling movements, probability estimates, market-implied expectations, election events, and political developments
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Strong experience making live forecasting judgments is central to this engagement
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All tasks must be completed using only information available at the specified evidence cutoff
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Hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, and material non-public information must not be used
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Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on project needs and performance
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Payments are made weekly through Stripe or Wise based on services rendered
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H1-B and STEM OPT candidates cannot currently be supported
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Work must be completed without using confidential or proprietary information belonging to any employer, client, campaign, political organisation, institution, or other third party
About the Platform
This opportunity is available through 24-MAG LLC. We connect experienced professionals with remote consulting opportunities across technical, evaluation, and project-based workstreams.
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